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A new method for estimating the trend in the fertility rate
Statistical News. Poland. Glowny Urzad Statystyczny
|February 1, 1983
Summary
This study details Gerard Calot's method for estimating monthly total period fertility rates (TPFRs) using provisional birth data. It also explains applying this method with the X-11 package to analyze fertility trends in England and Wales.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Reproductive Health Statistics
Background:
- Accurate fertility rate estimation is crucial for demographic analysis.
- Provisional monthly birth data presents challenges for timely fertility rate calculation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe Gerard Calot's method for estimating monthly total period fertility rates (TPFRs).
- To demonstrate the application of the Calot method combined with seasonal adjustment for trend analysis.
Main Methods:
- Gerard Calot's fertility estimation method.
- US Bureau of the Census X-11 seasonal adjustment package.
- Application to England and Wales monthly birth data.
Main Results:
- The Calot method provides a viable approach for estimating monthly TPFRs with provisional data.
- Combined use of Calot method and X-11 package effectively computes fertility rate trends.
Conclusions:
- The described methodology enhances the accuracy and timeliness of fertility rate analysis.
- This approach is valuable for demographic research and policy-making.
Keywords:
Birth RateData AnalysisDemographic AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEnglandEstimation TechnicsEuropeFertility MeasurementsFertility Rate--changesFertility--changesNorthern EuropePeriod AnalysisPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySeasonal VariationTotal Fertility RateUnited KingdomWales
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