[Indicators for longterm survival after the transjugular portosystemic intrahepatic shunt procedure]

Complications of portal hypertension can be treated effectively by the transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt procedure (TIPS). Indicators for long time survival after TIPS implantation are presented.

From September 1992 until May 1995 forty-two consecutive patients (26 male, 16 female) with liver cirrhosis complicated by variceal bleeding (n = 27) or refractory ascites (n = 15) were treated by TIPS implantation and followed up clinically in a prospective, open study. The follow up period range was 5-3278 days. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses were applied to determine the correlation between patient characteristics and long term survival after TIPS implantation. The indicators were dichotomized at the median. The outcome variable was dichotomized. Positive outcome was defined as survival longer than three years without liver transplantation, all other outcomes were regarded as negative. Survival rates were determined for all patients and for subgroups according to results of the regression analyses.

During follow-up liver transplantation was performed in 8 of the 42 patients. 29 patients died. Mean survival was 1440 (+/-1060) days. Survival after one, two, three and six years was 76% (n = 32), 69%(n = 29), 62% (n = 26) and 38% (n = 16), respectively. The multivariate regression analysis revealed a significant better survival related to a prothrombine time >70%, MEGX synthesis >30 microgram/l, and ICG clearance <13 min. Patients with high ICG clearance (OR = 1.9), high MEGX synthesis (OR = 5.0) or high prothrombine time scores (OR = 5.2) had a significantly longer survival. This survival advantage increased with follow up time.

Longterm survival after TIPS implantation is influenced by the initial liver function. This survival advantage increases during follow up and is most pronounced after 6 years.