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On estimating internal migration for open populations.

P Brosnan

    The Australian Journal of Statistics
    |January 1, 1981
    PubMed
    Summary
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    The forward census survival ratio (FCSR) method offers usable internal migration estimates. Despite concerns about international migration sensitivity, this method is argued to be preferable to alternatives.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Migration Analysis

    Background:

    • Estimating internal migration is crucial for demographic analysis and policy-making.
    • Existing methods for internal migration estimation have limitations.
    • The forward census survival ratio (FCSR) method is a potential alternative.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To review the utility of the forward census survival ratio (FCSR) method for estimating internal migration.
    • To address criticisms regarding the FCSR method's sensitivity to international migration.
    • To advocate for the FCSR method's preference over other migration estimation techniques.

    Main Methods:

    • Review and critical analysis of the forward census survival ratio (FCSR) method.
    • Comparative assessment of the FCSR method against alternative internal migration estimation techniques.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsEstimation TechnicsMeasurementMigrationMigration, InternalPopulationPopulation DynamicsReliabilityResearch Methodology

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  • Evaluation of the impact of international migration on FCSR estimates.

    • Main Results:

    • The FCSR method can provide usable estimates of internal migration.
    • The sensitivity of the FCSR method to international migration is a recognized weakness.
    • The impact of international migration on FCSR estimates is argued to be less critical than previously suggested.

    Conclusions:

    • The FCSR method presents a viable approach for internal migration estimation.
    • The identified weakness of the FCSR method does not preclude its effective use.
    • The FCSR method is recommended as a preferable option compared to other available methods for internal migration estimation.