Net migration by commercial air: a lower bound on total net migration to the United States

"This article presents evidence that net migration to the United States by commercial air alone was between 400 and 500 thousand a year over the period 1969 to 1978. This evidence is drawn from data gathered by the U.S. Department of Transportation in cooperation with the Immigration and Naturalization Service, by the International Air Transport Association, and individually by 20 major international airports in the United States. Net migration by commercial air may be used as a lower bound to total net migration to the United States. The latter would include, in addition to net migration by commercial air, net migration by land, by sea, and by clandestine and noncommercial (military- and government-chartered) air." The author concludes that "total net migration to the United States exceeds by a significant margin estimates of total net migration published by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which have averaged around 370 thousand over this same period, as well as recent estimates published in the demographic literature of between 500 and 600 thousand per year." A critique by Jennifer Marks (pp. 351-5) and a reply by Vining (pp. 357-60) are also included.