Demographic-economic forecasting within an activity-commodity framework: some theoretical considerations and...

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Demography
• Regional Science

Background:

• Conventional demographic and economic forecasting models often operate in isolation.
• Integrating these models presents methodological challenges.
• Existing multiplier series may not fully capture interdependencies.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a consistent methodology for integrating demographic and economic forecasting models.
• To derive new production, income, and employment multipliers.
• To gain insights into the relationships between demographic and economic variables.

Main Methods:

• Embedding a static Leontief input-output model within an activity analysis framework.
• Partitioning the activity analysis framework to analyze demographic-economic interactions.
• Applying the integrated framework to a case study of Merseyside for forecasting.

Main Results:

• A novel framework for consistent integration of demographic and economic forecasting models.
• Derivation of a new series of production, income, and employment multipliers with advantages over existing ones.
• Identification of complex relationships between demographic and economic variables through framework partitioning.

Conclusions:

• The developed methodology offers a consistent and insightful approach to integrated forecasting.
• The new multipliers provide a more comprehensive tool for economic impact analysis.
• The framework is effective for operational regional forecasting applications.