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An econometric model of internal migration and development: extensions and tests.

D Salvatore

    Regional Science and Urban Economics
    |February 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study validates a migration model for Italy (1958-1981) by extending its analysis period. The model demonstrates stability and reliable performance despite economic fluctuations, supporting its use for policy simulations.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Demography
    • Econometrics

    Background:

    • Previous research established a migration model for Italy covering 1958-1976.
    • The period 1976-1981 in Italy was marked by significant economic instability.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To extend the existing migration model's time frame to 1958-1981.
    • To test the stability and reliability of the extended migration model.
    • To assess the model's suitability for policy simulations and forecasting.

    Main Methods:

    • Econometric analysis of Italian migration data from 1958 to 1981.
    • Model coefficient stability testing.
    • Policy simulation and forecasting using the validated model.

    Main Results:

    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEconomic ModelEuropeItalyMediterranean CountriesMigrationMigration, InternalModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySouthern Europe

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    • The migration model maintained its performance over the extended 1958-1981 period.
    • The model's coefficients were found to be stable, even during periods of economic turmoil.
    • The extended model proved reliable for forecasting and policy simulation.

    Conclusions:

    • The validated migration model is robust and stable for analyzing Italian migration patterns.
    • The model's reliability supports its application in economic and demographic policy development.
    • The study confirms the model's utility despite challenging economic conditions.