Forecasting first births.

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Family Studies
• Marketing Research

Background:

• The family life cycle involves distinct stages, including the transition to parenthood.
• Understanding this transition is crucial for accurate demographic and market analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop statistical models for forecasting entry into the 'young married with small children' family stage.
• To support marketing research by predicting demographic shifts related to first births.

Main Methods:

• Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression was employed to estimate forecasting models.
• Data from official sources were utilized for the United States and California.

Main Results:

• Models were successfully estimated for the total number of first births.
• Separate models were developed for white and nonwhite first births, allowing for demographic segmentation.

Conclusions:

• The study provides a quantitative approach to forecasting a key family cycle transition.
• These forecasting models can be valuable tools for marketing research and demographic planning.