Fertility, sterilization, and population growth in Shanti Nagar, India: a longitudinal ethnographic approach

The results of the 1981 Indian census showed a slight increase in the rate of population growth despite an energetic governmental campaign to reduce fertility, the growing use of contraception, a substantial number of sterilized persons, and a declining birthrate. The longitudinal ethnographic analysis of population data from Shanti Nagar dating from the 1950s and the 1970s suggests that the growth rate of the population might be better understood if analytical emphasis were to be shifted somewhat from birth and death rates to survivorship, that is, the average number of living children per mother, thus focusing attention on the family, the social unit in which the decisions are made that give rise to national demographic rates and averages. Currently, the principle fertility decision that a Shanti Nagar couple must make is whether to undergo sterilization and how many children are deemed necessary before taking this step. Analysis of the Shanti Nagar data shows that women of completed fertility in the 1970s had more living children than comparable women in the 1950s, and that even the sterilized couples of the 1970s had only slightly fewer children than the almost entirely noncontracepting women of the 1950s. Although the age of women at their own (or their husbands') sterilization is falling and the operation takes place after fewer children than formerly, the average sterilized couple nonetheless has more than 4 children instead of the 2 or 3 that the Government of India prefers. An analysis of the relationship to fertility of various modernization variables, such as urbanization and enhanced economic status, fails to show any consistent correlation of such variables with reduced fertility. School attendance by females is perhaps the most promising of the modernization veriables, but its effect is somewhat ambiguous and relatively weak until women achieve the college level. Current trends suggest that soon after 2025, India may surpass China as the world's most populous nation.