[A further test of a multivariate forecasting model for fertility]

A model developed by J. Nelissen and A. Vossen, for making short-term population projections, is first described. In this model, the fertility rate is related to the unemployment rate and the fraction of the labor force employed in agriculture. The model is then applied to Dutch data for the period 1980-1985. "The main conclusions are that the results depend heavily on the choice of the forecasting period and that the ex-post forecasts of Nelissen and Vossen's model are out-performed by univariate ARIMA-projections." (SUMMARY IN ENG)