Seed bank in annuals: competition between banker and non-banker morphs

Seed bank is a plant life history strategy against the unpredictability of the biotic and the abiotic environment. We simulated competition between a seed banking and a non-banking morph of an annual plant. A constant fraction of the banker morph seeds was allocated to the seed bank, where they had a constant mortality and germination rate. All surviving seeds of the non-banker morph germinated in the next generation. The seedlings of both morphs experienced similar density-dependent mortality. Whether one of the morphs wins or the morphs coexist was evaluated from parameter space plots and statistically with logistic regression analysis. All parameters of the model had a significant, nonlinear effect on the persistence of the morphs, supporting our approach of numerically covering a wide range of parameter values. The seed production of a focal morph increased its survival and decreased the survival of the other morph. Otherwise, the morphs showed opposite response to changes in the model parameters. The banker morph was usually the winning strategy when it had a higher seed production than the non-banker morph. The banker morph benefitted from high germination probability, while the non-banker benefitted from high allocation to seed bank and high seed mortality. The coexistence of the morphs was inhibited by high banker morph seed production and seed mortality and promoted by high values of all other parameters. The system showed complex dynamics when banking was the winning strategy or the morphs coexisted. In addition, a part of the parameter space where the non-banker morph wins showed complex dynamics. Our results suggest that seed banking is a beneficial strategy if seed number is increased consequently, e.g. due to a decreased seed size. If banking decreases seed number, the non-banker morph wins or the two morphs coexist.