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Declining world fertility: trends, causes, implications.

A O Tsui, D J Bogue

    Population Bulletin
    |October 1, 1978
    PubMed
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    This summary is machine-generated.

    Global fertility rates declined significantly between 1968 and 1975, primarily due to family planning programs in less developed countries (LDCs). Continued support for these programs is crucial for managing future population growth.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Global Health
    • Socioeconomics

    Background:

    • Recent years have seen a notable decline in global fertility rates.
    • Less developed countries (LDCs) experienced a faster fertility decline than previously anticipated.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To examine the evidence for recent global fertility decline.
    • To identify factors contributing to this decline.
    • To project future fertility and population growth rates.

    Main Methods:

    • Compilation and analysis of fertility estimates for all nations.
    • Statistical analysis of socioeconomic progress and family planning program impact in LDCs.
    • Projection of fertility and population growth rates to the year 2000, compared with other global models.
    Keywords:
    Acceptors, NewAfricaAge FactorsAsiaBirth RateBrass TechnicCaribbeanCentral AmericaDemographic EffectivenessDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEastern EuropeEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsEstimation TechnicsEvaluationFamily PlanningFamily Planning Program EvaluationFamily Planning ProgramsFertilityFertility MeasurementsFertility Rate--changesLatin AmericaNorth AmericaOceaniaOwn Children DataPopulationPopulation DecreasePopulation DynamicsPopulation GrowthPopulation Growth EstimationPregnancy HistoryResearch MethodologyResearch ReportReverse Survival MethodSocioeconomic FactorsSouth AmericaSoutheastern AsiaSouthern AsiaStatistical RegressionTotal Fertility RateUssrWestern AsiaWestern Europe

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    Main Results:

    • World's total fertility rate decreased from 4.6 to 4.1 births per woman (1968-1975).
    • Fertility decline in LDCs was more rapid than expected.
    • Socioeconomic progress alone did not fully explain the decline; organized family planning programs were a major factor.
    • Projections indicate <20% of the global population in high-growth zones by 2000, with most LDCs entering fertility decline phases.

    Conclusions:

    • Continued, undiminished support for organized family planning programs in LDCs is imperative for sustained fertility decline.
    • Future population growth is contingent on the continuation of these family planning initiatives.