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Intransitivity, the spatial interaction model, and U.S. migration streams.

M F Goodchild, T R Smith

    Environment & Planning A
    |January 1, 1980
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Spatial interaction models predict transitive flows, but US migration data shows intransitivities. This study explores conditions causing these deviations in migration patterns.

    Area of Science:

    • Spatial analysis
    • Human geography
    • Econometrics

    Background:

    • Spatial interaction models commonly predict transitive flows.
    • US interstate migration data exhibits significant intransitivities.
    • Understanding these deviations is crucial for accurate migration modeling.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • Investigate conditions leading to intransitive flows in spatial interaction models.
    • Analyze factors causing observed intransitivities in US migration data.
    • Calibrate and compare spatial interaction models with empirical migration data.

    Main Methods:

    • Calibration of a singly constrained gravity model.
    • Distortion of flow tables by sampling error.
    • Aggregation over strata and introduction of independent error terms.
    Keywords:
    AmericasDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesMigrationMigration, InternalModels, TheoreticalNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyUnited States

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    Main Results:

    • Demonstration of how sampling error and aggregation can induce intransitivities.
    • Calibration results for US interstate migration flows (1935-1970).
    • Comparison of calibrated model results with existing literature.

    Conclusions:

    • Sampling error and aggregation are significant contributors to observed intransitivities.
    • Spatial interaction models require adjustments to accurately reflect real-world migration patterns.
    • Further research needed to refine models for complex migration dynamics.