Marriage, divorce, and living arrangements: prospective changes

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Demographics
• Family Studies

Background:

• Analysis of contemporary marriage patterns in the United States using official data.
• Examination of trends in first marriages, remarriages, and divorces.
• Assessment of evolving household structures, including cohabitation and single-parent families.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze current marriage and divorce patterns in the U.S.
• To project future trends in marital status and household composition.
• To identify demographic factors influencing marriage and divorce rates.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of official U.S. data on marriage and divorce.
• Statistical projection of future trends based on current rates.
• Examination of demographic variables such as education level and age.

Main Results:

• First marriage peak in 1982; divorce peak projected around 1990.
• Declining rates for first marriages and remarriages; divorce rates are high, especially for second marriages (60%).
• Divorce rates are highest for those with incomplete college education and lowest for college graduates.
• Significant increase in cohabiting couples and single-parent households.
• Projected continued increase in single-parent households and decrease in two-parent households.

Conclusions:

• Marriage and divorce trends indicate a shift in U.S. family structures.
• Approximately half of young adult first marriages and 60% of second marriages are expected to end in divorce.
• Despite declining marriage rates, married couples and single-parent households will remain the predominant living arrangements in 1990.