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The demographic transition.

A J Coale

    Pakistan Development Review
    |January 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Demographic transition involves societal shifts from high to low fertility and mortality rates. Cultural factors, not just development, significantly influence these changes, ultimately leading to slower population growth.

    Area of Science:

    • Sociology
    • Demography
    • Population Studies

    Background:

    • Demographic transition describes the shift from high to low fertility and mortality rates during societal modernization.
    • Pre-industrial societies had moderate fertility due to customs, not birth control.
    • Fertility reduction during transition is linked to deliberate contraception use.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the factors influencing demographic transition, particularly fertility changes.
    • To investigate the relationship between societal development and reproductive behavior.
    • To understand the role of cultural elements in demographic shifts.

    Main Methods:

    • Extensive study of demographic transition in Europe.
    • Analysis of historical reproductive behaviors and societal changes.
    Keywords:
    Birth RateContraceptionDemographic FactorsDemographic TransitionDemographyDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesDevelopment PlanningEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsEducational StatusEuropeFamily PlanningFamily Planning, Behavioral MethodsFertilityFertility MeasurementsFertility RateInfant MortalityLactation, ProlongedMacroeconomic FactorsMarriageMarriage PatternsMeasurementMortalityNuptialityParityPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation TheoryResearch MethodologySocial ChangeSocial DevelopmentSocial SciencesTotal Fertility Rate

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  • Examination of correlations between fertility, education, urbanization, and mortality.

    • Main Results:

    • Fertility in pre-modern societies was moderate, influenced by customs like late marriage and breastfeeding.
    • Fertility decline during transition is driven by the adoption of contraception.
    • European demographic transition showed weak links between fertility and development indicators (education, urbanization, infant mortality).
    • Cultural factors, including shared customs, language, and religious traditions, play a significant role.

    Conclusions:

    • Societal modernization consistently leads to low fertility and mortality.
    • Cultural factors are crucial in shaping fertility patterns during demographic transition.
    • The transition is a complex process influenced by both development and cultural norms.