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Reproductive response to child mortality: a maximum likelihood estimation model.

J Mauskopf

    Journal of the American Statistical Association
    |June 1, 1983
    PubMed
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    Child death replacement probability in Brazil ranges from 0.4 to 0.9. This fertility response varies with education, residence, and electrification, indicating development correlates with fewer surviving children.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Sociology
    • Public Health

    Background:

    • Child mortality significantly impacts household fertility decisions.
    • Understanding fertility responses to child death is crucial for population studies.
    • Previous research has not fully quantified replacement probability in Brazil.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To estimate the fertility replacement probability following a child death in Brazil.
    • To analyze how socioeconomic and demographic factors influence this replacement behavior.
    • To investigate the relationship between development indicators and the number of surviving children.

    Main Methods:

    • Employed a maximum likelihood estimation model.
    • Accounted for variations in birth, death, and replacement birth distributions.
    Keywords:
    AmericasBrazilChild MortalityDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic DevelopmentEducational StatusEstimation TechnicsFertilityInfant MortalityLatin AmericaMathematical ModelMethodological StudiesModels, TheoreticalMortalityPopulationPopulation DynamicsReproductive BehaviorResearch MethodologyResearch ReportResidence CharacteristicsSouth America

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  • Incorporated exogenous variables such as women's education, rural-urban residence, and household electrification.

    • Main Results:

    • Estimated replacement probabilities in Brazil ranged from 0.4 to 0.9.
    • Replacement probability systematically varied with women's education levels.
    • Rural-urban residence and household electrification were also significant influencing factors.
    • Increased development was correlated with a lower number of surviving children.

    Conclusions:

    • Fertility responses to child death in Brazil are quantifiable and influenced by socioeconomic factors.
    • Educational attainment, living environment, and access to modern amenities shape reproductive decisions.
    • Socioeconomic development appears to be associated with a trend towards fewer surviving offspring.