Indirect estimation of infant mortality trends: simulation tests on the Feeney method

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Public Health
• Statistical Modeling

Background:

• Infant mortality estimation is crucial for public health.
• Indirect estimation methods are vital in data-scarce regions.
• Griffith Feeney developed key methods for indirect infant mortality estimation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review and test Griffith Feeney's indirect infant mortality estimation methods.
• To evaluate the performance of these methods under various simulated conditions.
• To identify the conditions under which Feeney's methods are most reliable.

Main Methods:

• Simulation of infant mortality data.
• Application of Griffith Feeney's indirect estimation techniques.
• Analysis of estimation errors based on deviations from model assumptions.

Main Results:

• Feeney's methods yield excellent results when all specified conditions are satisfied.
• The 'short-cut' method is accurate only for Brass-type mortality age patterns.
• The general method requires solving complex equations for non-standard mortality patterns.

Conclusions:

• The reliability of Feeney's infant mortality estimation methods is highly dependent on adherence to model assumptions, especially regarding the age pattern of mortality.
• Deviations from the model, particularly in mortality patterns, introduce significant errors.
• The choice between the 'short-cut' and general method depends critically on the observed age pattern of mortality.