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A probability distribution for rural out-migration at micro-level.

H L Sharma

    Rural Demography
    |January 1, 1985
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces an inflated geometric distribution to analyze rural out-migration patterns at the micro-level. The proposed method estimates parameters and their variances, offering insights into migration trends.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Statistics
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Rural out-migration is a significant demographic phenomenon impacting micro-level communities.
    • Understanding migration trends requires robust statistical models for accurate analysis.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To propose an inflated geometric distribution for studying micro-level rural out-migration.
    • To outline a procedure for estimating the parameters of this distribution.
    • To derive asymptotic expressions for the variances and covariances of these estimates.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of an inflated geometric distribution model.
    • Estimation of distribution parameters using a defined procedure.
    • Derivation of asymptotic variances and covariances for parameter estimates.
    Keywords:
    AsiaDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEstimation TechnicsIndiaMathematical ModelMethodological StudiesMigrationModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyRural PopulationRural-urban MigrationSouthern Asia

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  • Application of the model to real-world survey data.

    • Main Results:

    • The study successfully outlines a method for estimating parameters of the inflated geometric distribution.
    • Asymptotic expressions for variances and covariances of the estimates were obtained.
    • The proposed distribution was applied to analyze rural out-migration using survey data from Varanasi, India.

    Conclusions:

    • The inflated geometric distribution provides a viable statistical framework for analyzing rural out-migration at the micro-level.
    • The estimation procedure and derived asymptotic properties enhance the model's utility for demographic research.
    • The case study demonstrates the practical application of the model in understanding household migration patterns.