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Household projection methods.

I E Corner

    Journal of Forecasting
    |October 1, 1987
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study evaluates household projection methods for national and sub-national forecasting. An improved two-stage strategy is proposed, enhancing data utilization and transparency in household forecasting.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Social Statistics
    • Urban Planning

    Background:

    • Household projections are crucial for national and sub-national forecasting.
    • Existing methods, like the UK Department of the Environment's, are practical but have limitations.
    • Criticisms include suboptimal data use and a lack of transparency ('black box' nature).

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To discuss criteria for robust household projections.
    • To evaluate the UK Department of the Environment's projection method.
    • To develop and present an alternative, improved two-stage projection strategy.

    Main Methods:

    • Outlined criteria for evaluating household projection methods.
    • Examined the UK Department of the Environment's projection methodology.
    Keywords:
    Developed CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeEvaluationEvaluation MethodologyFamily And HouseholdFamily Life CycleFamily ResearchHouseholdsMethodological StudiesNorthern EuropePopulation ForecastPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologyUnited Kingdom

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  • Developed a novel two-stage strategy: 1) curve-fitting with cohort life-cycle headship rate changes, 2) transition rate modeling for household states.

    • Main Results:

    • The existing method is practical and robust but underutilizes data and lacks transparency.
    • The proposed curve-fitting method accounts for within-cohort life-cycle headship rate changes.
    • The proposed transition rate modeling offers a method for analyzing projection outcomes.

    Conclusions:

    • The UK's current household projection method, while functional, can be improved.
    • The developed two-stage strategy offers a more data-driven and transparent approach.
    • This research provides a practical, enhanced methodology for household forecasting.