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Household projection methods.

Journal of Forecasting

|October 1, 1987

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This study evaluates household projection methods for national and sub-national forecasting. An improved two-stage strategy is proposed, enhancing data utilization and transparency in household forecasting.

Area of Science:

Demography
Social Statistics
Urban Planning

Background:

Household projections are crucial for national and sub-national forecasting.
Existing methods, like the UK Department of the Environment's, are practical but have limitations.
Criticisms include suboptimal data use and a lack of transparency ('black box' nature).

Purpose of the Study:

To discuss criteria for robust household projections.
To evaluate the UK Department of the Environment's projection method.
To develop and present an alternative, improved two-stage projection strategy.

Main Methods:

Outlined criteria for evaluating household projection methods.
Examined the UK Department of the Environment's projection methodology.

Keywords:

Developed Countries Estimation Technics Europe Evaluation Evaluation Methodology Family And Household Family Life Cycle Family Research Households Methodological Studies Northern Europe Population Forecast Population Projection Research Methodology United Kingdom

Related Experiment Videos

Developed a novel two-stage strategy: 1) curve-fitting with cohort life-cycle headship rate changes, 2) transition rate modeling for household states.

Main Results:

The existing method is practical and robust but underutilizes data and lacks transparency.
The proposed curve-fitting method accounts for within-cohort life-cycle headship rate changes.
The proposed transition rate modeling offers a method for analyzing projection outcomes.

Conclusions:

The UK's current household projection method, while functional, can be improved.
The developed two-stage strategy offers a more data-driven and transparent approach.
This research provides a practical, enhanced methodology for household forecasting.