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Updated: Aug 10, 2026
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Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Economic analyses of rapid population growth
The World Bank Research Observer
|January 1, 1989
Summary
Macroeconomic impacts of rapid population growth are debated by pessimists, optimists, and revisionists. Revisionists examine market failures and institutional adjustments, influencing policy on fertility reduction in developing nations.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- Demography
- Public Policy
Background:
- Rapid population growth presents significant macroeconomic challenges, particularly in developing countries.
- Economic perspectives on population growth historically fall into pessimistic and optimistic schools.
- Recent revisionist views incorporate market failures and institutional adaptation to population dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the macroeconomic consequences of rapid population growth.
- To present differing revisionist perspectives on market failures and adaptive capacities.
- To evaluate public policies aimed at fertility reduction using a welfare economics framework.
Main Methods:
- Review of economic literature on population growth and macroeconomics.
- Analysis of revisionist theories concerning market failures (e.g., externalities of childbearing).
- Welfare economics approach to assess public policy interventions.
Main Results:
- Revisionist school highlights the role of market failures and institutional adjustment in population dynamics.
- Identifies public financing of family planning and financial incentives/taxes as key policy areas.
- Focuses on the specific context and challenges within developing countries.
Conclusions:
- Understanding market failures and institutional responses is crucial for managing population growth's economic impact.
- Policy interventions, including family planning services and financial incentives, require careful welfare economic evaluation.
- The debate on population growth's macroeconomic consequences is evolving with revisionist insights.
Keywords:
Age FactorsChild--costDemographic AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesDisincentivesEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsFamily And HouseholdFamily PlanningFamily Planning ProgramsFertilityFinancial ActivitiesIncentivesMacroeconomic FactorsPolicyPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation GrowthResearch MethodologyTaxationYouth
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