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Complex demoeconomics dynamics.

R H Day, K H Kim, D Macunovich

    Journal of Population Economics
    |September 1, 1989
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Demoeconomic behavior, influenced by household preferences and costs, can exhibit fluctuations and unpredictable patterns. This complexity may explain persistent errors in long-term population forecasts.

    Area of Science:

    • Demoeconomics
    • Population Dynamics
    • Economic Modeling

    Background:

    • Long-run demoeconomic behavior is complex and influenced by multiple factors.
    • Understanding these dynamics is crucial for accurate population forecasting.
    • Existing models may not fully capture the nuances of demographic and economic interactions.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To investigate the relationship between household preferences, productivity, and childbearing costs on demoeconomic behavior.
    • To identify the conditions under which demoeconomic systems exhibit fluctuations and unpredictable patterns.
    • To provide a potential explanation for inaccuracies in population forecasts.

    Main Methods:

    • Qualitative analysis of demoeconomic models.
    • Examination of nonlinear dynamics and bifurcation points.
    Keywords:
    AmericasBehaviorBirth RateChild Rearing--costDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily SizeFertilityFertility MeasurementsHouseholdsIncomeMortalityNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsProductivitySocioeconomic FactorsUnited States

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Simulation of long-run economic and demographic interactions.

    • Main Results:

    • Demoeconomic behavior is sensitive to household preferences, productivity, and childbearing costs.
    • Slowly changing factors can trigger significant shifts in growth trends through nonlinearities.
    • Nonperiodic and unpredictable demoeconomic behavior is a robust finding.

    Conclusions:

    • Household preferences, productivity, and childbearing costs are key determinants of demoeconomic trajectories.
    • The study highlights the potential for complex, unpredictable dynamics within demoeconomic systems.
    • The findings offer a plausible explanation for persistent errors in population forecasting models.