A hypothesis about the decline of fertility: evidence from the United States

The author examines the relationships among fertility decline, urbanization, and the increase in personal autonomy in the United States during the nineteenth century. "Urbanization was consistently negatively correlated with the level of fertility in 1810, 1860, 1920, and 1940. Urbanization was not significantly correlated with the decline of fertility in the period, i.e. from 1800 to 1860; from 1860 to 1920; and from 1920 to 1940. For the period from 1800 to 1860, however, the decline was closely associated with a proxy variable for what is called the spirit of autonomy, i.e., a feeling of control over one's life. It is hypothesized that this sense of control extended to control over fertility. After 1860 the ideas became so widespread that they were no longer associated with any particular group, region, religion, or class. It was just a matter of time until the ideas spread slowly to all groups." (SUMMARY IN FRE)