The dependency ratio and optimum population growth. The total utility case

Area of Science:

• Demographic Economics
• Population Dynamics Modeling

Background:

• Dasgupta's (1969) economic-demographic model provides a foundational framework.
• Traditional models often assume static demographic parameters, limiting realism.
• Variable dependency ratios are crucial for understanding population economics.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact of age-dependent mortality and labor force participation on population growth.
• To investigate how variable dependency ratios affect optimal population growth rates and consumption.
• To examine the sensitivity of economic-demographic model solutions to demographic parameter changes.

Main Methods:

• Extension of Dasgupta's (1969) economic-demographic model.
• Incorporation of age-specific probabilities of dying.
• Inclusion of age-specific labor force participation rates.

Main Results:

• Variable dependency ratios significantly slow the optimal rate of population growth.
• Increased consumption rates are observed with the introduction of realistic demographic features.
• Despite deceleration, the population growth rate can remain positive.

Conclusions:

• Realistic demographic factors, such as age-varying dependency ratios, are essential for accurate economic-demographic modeling.
• Policy implications may involve balancing population growth and consumption under changing demographic conditions.
• Further research should explore the sensitivity of these findings to diverse demographic scenarios.