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Summary
This study introduces a method to identify cohorts responsible for the population explosion starting in the 1950s. The technique accurately estimates intercohort increases across various age groups using census data, applicable globally.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Population Studies
- Sociology
Background:
- The mid-20th century witnessed a significant global population increase, termed the population explosion.
- Identifying the specific cohorts driving this demographic shift is crucial for understanding population dynamics.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present a novel technique for identifying the specific birth cohorts that initiated the population explosion.
- To demonstrate the applicability and robustness of this method across different populations and age groups.
Main Methods:
- The study employs a cohort-based analysis utilizing data from two successive population censuses.
- The core methodology involves estimating intercohort increases, which represent the net change in population size between consecutive birth cohorts.
Main Results:
- The developed technique successfully identifies the cohorts responsible for the population explosion.
- A numerical example for Indonesia illustrates the method's effectiveness, with similar patterns observed in other countries and global aggregates.
- The estimation of intercohort increase yields consistent results regardless of the age group analyzed.
Conclusions:
- The proposed method provides a reliable tool for pinpointing the origins of rapid population growth.
- The findings underscore the universality of the identified demographic patterns across diverse national contexts.