[Accuracy of forecasts of annual numbers based on monthly numbers]

"Since 1985 monthly forecasts have been made of yearly numbers of births, deaths, immigration, emigration and marriages [in the Netherlands] on the basis of monthly figures. The forecasts are equal to the arithmetic average of an ARIMA projection and a naive forecast.... This article compares the forecasts for the years 1985-1989 with forecasts obtained from a simple alternative method." (SUMMARY IN ENG)