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Capital accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles.

G Feichtinger, E J Dockner

    Journal of Population Economics
    |January 1, 1990
    PubMed
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    This study explains population cycles in industrialized economies using a model where birth rates adapt to consumption expectations. Economic and demographic swings arise from balancing present and future consumption.

    Area of Science:

    • Demoeconomics
    • Economic demography
    • Population economics

    Background:

    • Industrialized economies exhibit population cycles.
    • Birth rates are influenced by consumption rate discrepancies.
    • Easterlin's adapting aspiration level concept is relevant.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To model and explain population cycles in industrialized economies.
    • To integrate endogenous population growth with neoclassical optimal growth.
    • To analyze the impact of consumption expectations on demographic and economic variables.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a highly aggregated demo-economic model.
    • Incorporation of birth rate dependency on actual vs. expected consumption.
    • Analysis of an endogenously growing population system without age structure.
    Keywords:
    Birth RateDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEasterlin HypothesisEconomic ConditionsEconomic FactorsEstimation TechnicsFertility MeasurementsFertility--changesMacroeconomic FactorsMicroeconomic FactorsModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch Methodology

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    Main Results:

    • The model demonstrates the possibility of population cycles.
    • Swings in both economic and demographic variables were observed.
    • An intertemporal substitution effect was identified as the cause.

    Conclusions:

    • Endogenous population growth models can explain economic and demographic cycles.
    • Consumption expectations play a crucial role in economic and demographic dynamics.
    • Intertemporal consumption choices drive observed population cycles.