The end of an affair? Geography and fertility in late post-transitional societies

A common theme in the writings of population geographers with a fertility interest has been a concern with the convergence of interregional fertility differentials. It is now clear, however, that the widespread achievement in western societies of below-replacement fertility has resulted in a dramatic diminution of most forms of differential fertility, whether sectoral or spatial. The question of "what remains for the spatial analyst working in the traditional ecological mode?" must therefore be asked. An analysis of small-area fertility differentials in NSW in 1986 suggests (a) that most of the variability in local marital and total fertility is not statistically significant, and (b) that even if this problem is ignored, traditional ecological analysis has only trivial 'explanatory' power. While complete spatial uniformity is unlikely ever to be achieved, it is argued that the intrasocietal convergence of reproductive norms and behavior has proceeded so far that conventional geographic approaches to the analysis of fertility are unlikely any longer to be, if they ever were, fruitful