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The third birth in Sweden.

J J Heckman, J R Walker

    Journal of Population Economics
    |January 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces a unified microdynamic fertility model to analyze parity progression, sterility, and birth intervals. It develops a novel estimation methodology accounting for time-varying factors, offering insights into fertility determinants.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Reproductive Health
    • Statistical Modeling

    Background:

    • Fertility modeling traditionally uses fragmented approaches.
    • Understanding the dynamics of parity progression and birth intervals requires a unified framework.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To formulate and estimate a microdynamic fertility model.
    • To provide a unified framework for analyzing parity choices, sterility, childlessness, interbirth intervals, and pregnancy initiation.
    • To develop and validate a general methodology for estimating transition times to births of different orders.

    Main Methods:

    • Development of a general methodology for estimating transition times.
    • Incorporation of time-varying explanatory variables and unobservables.
    • Presentation of conditions justifying hazard and survivor function relationships with time-varying variables.
    Keywords:
    Birth OrderDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeEvaluationEvaluation MethodologyFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily RelationshipsFertilityFertility MeasurementsNorthern EuropePopulationPopulation DynamicsReproductive BehaviorResearch MethodologyScandinaviaSweden

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Evaluation of piecemeal estimation strategies.
  • Methods for selecting the best model among non-nested models.
  • Main Results:

    • A unified microdynamic model explaining key fertility components.
    • A robust estimation methodology for fertility transition times.
    • Demonstration of the model's application to Swedish third birth determinants.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed unified framework enhances the understanding of fertility dynamics.
    • The developed methodology offers a statistically sound approach to analyzing fertility determinants.
    • The study provides empirical evidence on factors influencing third births in Sweden.