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Emigration from Israel 1950-1981: a simulation study.

C Jacobsen, R Bronson

    Israel Social Science Research
    |January 1, 1988
    PubMed
    Summary
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    A mathematical model explains over 80% of emigration trends from Israel between 1950-1981. This suggests general normative regulation, not specific events, drives emigration patterns in industrialized societies.

    Area of Science:

    • Sociology
    • Mathematical Modeling
    • Demographics

    Background:

    • Emigration from Israel between 1950-1981 presents complex demographic trends.
    • Understanding the drivers of this emigration is crucial for policy and social science.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and test a mathematical model based on a general theory of normative regulation.
    • To explain the variance in cumulative and yearly emigration percentages from Israel.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized a general theory of normative regulation.
    • Developed a mathematical model to analyze emigration data from 1950 to 1981.
    • Reproduced over 80% of the variance in emigration percentages.

    Main Results:

    Keywords:
    AsiaBehaviorDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsInternational MigrationIsraelMathematical ModelMediterranean CountriesMigrationModels, TheoreticalMotivationPopulationPopulation DynamicsPsychological FactorsResearch MethodologyWestern Asia

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  • The model successfully reproduced over 80% of the variance in both cumulative and yearly emigration percentages.
  • Emigration trends were largely explained by the general theory, with minimal need for situation-specific factors, except briefly after the 1967 Six-Day War.

    • Conclusions:

    • The general theory of normative regulation adequately accounts for emigration trends in modern industrialized societies.
    • Specific historical events have limited explanatory power for long-term emigration patterns.
    • Findings offer practical insights for mitigating emigration processes.