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Household modelling and forecasting--dynamic approaches with use of linked census data
Environment & Planning A
|June 1, 1991
Summary
This study introduces dynamic household models, offering an improvement over criticized headship rate methods. These new models better capture household formation and dissolution dynamics using longitudinal census data.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Statistical Modeling
Background:
- The headship rate method for household modeling faces recent criticism.
- Limitations of traditional methods necessitate advanced approaches.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose and present improved dynamic models for household formation and dissolution.
- To offer alternatives to the criticized headship rate method.
Main Methods:
- Utilizing the Office of Population Censuses and Surveys (OPCS) 1% longitudinal study.
- Analyzing linked data from the 1971 and 1981 England and Wales Censuses.
- Developing and presenting alternative dynamic models.
Main Results:
- Demonstrated advantages of dynamic models over static methods.
- Presentation of several novel dynamic models for household dynamics.
- Analysis based on a large-scale longitudinal dataset.
Conclusions:
- Dynamic models provide a more accurate representation of household changes.
- The proposed models offer a robust framework for demographic analysis.
- Longitudinal data is crucial for understanding household formation and dissolution patterns.
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