Jove
Visualize
Contact Us
JoVE
x logofacebook logolinkedin logoyoutube logo
ABOUT JoVE
OverviewLeadershipBlogJoVE Help Center
AUTHORS
Publishing ProcessEditorial BoardScope & PoliciesPeer ReviewFAQSubmit
LIBRARIANS
TestimonialsSubscriptionsAccessResourcesLibrary Advisory BoardFAQ
RESEARCH
JoVE JournalMethods CollectionsJoVE Encyclopedia of ExperimentsArchive
EDUCATION
JoVE CoreJoVE BusinessJoVE Science EducationJoVE Lab ManualFaculty Resource CenterFaculty Site
Terms & Conditions of Use
Privacy Policy
Policies

Related Experiment Videos

From birth expectations to birth forecasts: a partial-adjustment approach.

J De Beer

    Mathematical Population Studies
    |January 1, 1991
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

    Related Concept Videos

    You might also read

    Related Articles

    Articles linked to this work by shared authors, journal, and citation graph.

    Sort by
    Same author

    Developing a theory of family care during critical illness.

    The Southern African journal of critical care : the official journal of the Critical Care Society·2023
    Same author

    Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypic drug resistance patterns and clustering in Jayapura, Papua, Indonesia.

    The international journal of tuberculosis and lung disease : the official journal of the International Union against Tuberculosis and Lung Disease·2015
    Same author

    Accuracy profiles assessing the validity for routine use of high-performance thin-layer chromatographic assays for drug formulations.

    Journal of chromatography. A·2013
    Same author

    Classification trees based on infrared spectroscopic data to discriminate between genuine and counterfeit medicines.

    Journal of pharmaceutical and biomedical analysis·2011
    Same author

    A fast ultra high pressure liquid chromatographic method for qualification and quantification of pharmaceutical combination preparations containing paracetamol, acetyl salicylic acid and/or antihistaminics.

    Journal of pharmaceutical and biomedical analysis·2011
    Same author

    A validated ultra high pressure liquid chromatographic method for qualification and quantification of folic acid in pharmaceutical preparations.

    Journal of pharmaceutical and biomedical analysis·2010
    Same journal

    Development of an Exact Theory of Decomposing Population Attributable Fractions and Application to Decomposition of Alzheimer's Disease Risk.

    Mathematical population studies·2026
    Same journal

    Editorial: Methods and Applications in Spatial Demography: 2.

    Mathematical population studies·2021
    Same journal

    Beyond Household Walls: The Spatial Structure of American Extended Kinship Networks.

    Mathematical population studies·2021
    Same journal

    Prevalence of Left-handedness in China 2011: Small-area Estimates.

    Mathematical population studies·2020
    Same journal

    Neighborhood affluence protects against antenatal smoking: evidence from a spatial multiple membership model.

    Mathematical population studies·2019
    Same journal

    A Discrete-Time Branching Process Model of Yeast Prion Curing Curves.

    Mathematical population studies·2018
    See all related articles

    Women's fertility expectations often differ from reality, making them unreliable for direct forecasting. This study proposes a partial-adjustment method to improve fertility forecasts using these expectations, showing promising results for the Netherlands.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Reproductive Health
    • Social Statistics

    Background:

    • Women's subjective expectations of future fertility often diverge from actual childbearing outcomes.
    • This systematic deviation limits the direct use of fertility expectations for accurate demographic forecasting.
    • Understanding and correcting for this expectation-realization gap is crucial for reproductive health and social policy.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop and evaluate a novel partial-adjustment approach for forecasting future fertility based on women's expectations.
    • To assess the sensitivity of the forecasting model to different underlying assumptions.
    • To provide a more reliable method for predicting fertility trends.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilized a partial-adjustment model to reconcile reported fertility expectations with observed fertility outcomes.
    Keywords:
    Births ExpectedDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeFamily And HouseholdFamily CharacteristicsFamily SizeFamily Size, CompletedFamily Size, DesiredFertilityFertility MeasurementsModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastResearch MethodologyWestern Europe

    Related Experiment Videos

  • Conducted sensitivity analyses to determine the robustness of the forecasting approach under varying assumptions.
  • Employed empirical data from the Netherlands for model validation.

    • Main Results:

    • The partial-adjustment method demonstrated a promising improvement in forecasting accuracy compared to direct use of expectations.
    • Sensitivity analyses indicated that the model's performance is reasonably robust across different assumption sets.
    • Empirical findings for the Netherlands suggest the approach's practical applicability.

    Conclusions:

    • A partial-adjustment approach offers a viable method to correct for systematic deviations in women's fertility expectations.
    • This refined forecasting technique can enhance the reliability of demographic projections in reproductive health research.
    • The study provides a valuable tool for policymakers and researchers analyzing fertility trends.