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The ABS population projections: overview and evaluation.

A Y Adam

    Journal of the Australian Population Association
    |November 1, 1992
    PubMed
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    The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) provides population projections, evaluating past accuracy and outlining future service developments. This research covers the ABS projection service from 1978 to the present.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Statistical Science

    Background:

    • The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is Australia's central statistical agency.
    • Population projections are crucial for policy and planning.
    • Understanding the history and accuracy of ABS projections is vital.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To provide a historical overview of the ABS projection service.
    • To detail the methodology and components used in generating population projections.
    • To assess the accuracy of past ABS projections and identify future needs.

    Main Methods:

    • Review of historical ABS projection methodologies.
    • Compilation of demographic components of change (fertility, mortality, migration).
    • Accuracy assessment by comparing projections with estimated resident population data (national and sub-national levels).
    Keywords:
    AustraliaData AnalysisData CollectionData QualityDeveloped CountriesEconomic FactorsEstimation TechnicsEvaluationEvaluation ReportNeedsOceaniaPopulation ProjectionResearch Methodology

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    Main Results:

    • The paper details the evolution of ABS projection methods.
    • Accuracy of past ABS projections is evaluated against actual population data.
    • Current services, unmet needs, and future developments are outlined.

    Conclusions:

    • The ABS projection service has a long history of development and application.
    • Assessing projection accuracy is key to improving future demographic forecasts.
    • Future ABS services aim to meet evolving user demands and enhance dissemination.