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Uncertainty variants of population forecasts
Abstract:
"When using population forecasts it is important to take into account the degree of uncertainty of the results. For that reason the Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics publishes low and high variants next to the most probable medium variant.... The width of the interval between the variants is based on an analysis of previous forecast errors. The degree of uncertainty of the various forecast results turns out to vary strongly.... On the basis of a statistical time-series model of forecast errors of total population growth, a confidence interval of total population size can be estimated."
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