Expert fears doom if world population hits 12-15 billion

Earth's land, water and cropland are disappearing so rapidly that the world population must be slashed to 2 billion or less by 2100 to provide prosperity for all in that year, says a study released yesterday. The alternative, if current trends continue, is a population of 12 billion to 15 billion people and an apocalyptic worldwide scene of "absolute misery, poverty, disease and starvation," said the study's author, David Pimentel, an ecologist at Cornell University. In the US, the population would climb to 500 million and the standard of living would decline to slightly better than in present-day China. Mr. Pimentel said at the annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science. Even now, the world population of 6 billion is at least 3 times what the Earth's battered natural resources and depleted energy reserves would be able to comfortably support in 2100, Mr. Pimentel said. Mr. Pimentel defines "comfortably support" as providing something close to the current American standard of living, but with wiser use of energy and natural resources. Although a decline to 1 billion or 2 billion people over the next century sounds nearly impossible, it could be done by limiting families around the world to an average of 1.5 children, Mr. Pimentel said. Currently, US women have an average of 2.1 children, while the average in Rwanda is 8.5.