South African HIV surveillance

In (Africa Health), Nov 1994, you state that "AIDS specialist Alan Whiteside at the University of Natal says that one in five South Africans may be HIV positive." This is an inaccurate quote. South Africa is perhaps unique in African countries in that we have had very large sentinel surveys carried out on women attending ante-natal clinics for the past four years. These are done in October/November each year and have given us an accurate picture of the progress of the epidemic. The results from the 1994 survey are not yet available. However, the 1993 results were used to make predictions for 1994. In the worst affected area of South Africa, the prediction is that 19.78% of women attending the ante-natal clinics will be HIV positive. Full results by province are given in the following table. It would not, therefore, be accurate to say that one in five South Africans may be HIV positive, as clearly this is not the case country-wide and, even though one in five women in Natal/KwaZulu may be positive, they represent only the sexually active adult population.