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The future population and the future labour force.

C Young

    People and Place
    |January 1, 1994
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Future Australian population trends show that zero net migration and below-replacement fertility won't cause immediate population decline. The dependency ratio in 2041 is projected to be similar to the early 1980s.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Sociology
    • Economics

    Background:

    • Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data provides insights into population, labour force, and dependency ratios.
    • Historical trends in dependants and non-dependants are available from ABS census and Labour Force Surveys.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze feasible future trends in Australia's population, labour force, and dependency ratios.
    • To combine various ABS data sources for a comprehensive trend analysis.

    Main Methods:

    • Utilizing recent ABS publications on population projections.
    • Incorporating historical ABS census and Labour Force Survey data.
    • Analyzing scenarios of zero net migration and below-replacement fertility.

    Main Results:

    Keywords:
    AustraliaDemographic FactorsDependency BurdenDeveloped CountriesEconomic FactorsEstimation TechnicsHuman ResourcesLabor ForceMicroeconomic FactorsOceaniaPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation GrowthPopulation ProjectionPopulation SizeResearch Methodology

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    • Official population projections indicate that zero net migration and 10% below-replacement fertility will not lead to an immediate population decline in Australia.
    • The conventional labour-force dependency ratio for Australia in 2041 is projected to be no worse than in the early 1980s.

    Conclusions:

    • Australia's population is resilient to immediate decline even under low fertility and migration scenarios.
    • The future dependency situation in Australia is not expected to worsen significantly compared to historical levels.