Duration dependence in migration behaviour: cumulative inertia versus stochastic change

Area of Science:

• Sociology
• Urban Studies
• Spatial Interaction Modeling

Background:

• Understanding residential mobility patterns is crucial for urban planning and social science research.
• Existing models often simplify the complex factors influencing an individual's decision to move or stay in a location.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a novel theoretical framework explaining the relationship between movement probabilities and duration of stay.
• To empirically test this framework using data on household movement intentions.

Main Methods:

• Development of a stochastic model where location value evaluations evolve over time.
• Incorporation of tendencies for cumulative inertia (staying put) or cumulative stress (seeking new locations).
• Fitting the model to the U.K. General Household Survey data on household movement intentions.

Main Results:

• The model predicts a non-monotonic duration function for movement probabilities: starting at zero, rising, then falling.
• Empirical analysis confirmed this hypothesized function.
• Evidence suggests a stronger influence of cumulative stress compared to cumulative inertia in household relocation decisions.

Conclusions:

• The proposed theoretical framework effectively captures the dynamics of residential mobility.
• Cumulative stress appears to be a more dominant factor than cumulative inertia in shaping movement probabilities and length of stay.
• Findings offer insights into the psychological and spatial factors driving human movement patterns.