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[Reconciling population censuses with birth, death, and migration statistics through an expolinomial function].

M Ordorica Mellado

    Estudios Demograficos Y Urbanos
    |September 1, 1994
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Researchers developed a new mathematical model, expolinomial, to accurately describe Mexico's population changes from 1940 to 1990. This model helps reconcile census data with vital statistics for better demographic analysis.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Mathematical Modeling
    • Population Studies

    Context:

    • Historical population data in Mexico (1940-1990) often presents discrepancies between census counts and vital records (births, deaths, migration).
    • Accurate demographic data is crucial for understanding population trends and informing policy.

    Purpose:

    • To develop a novel mathematical function, termed 'expolinomial', for modeling total population dynamics.
    • To reconcile inconsistencies between Mexican population census data and vital statistics (birth, death, and migration records) for the period 1940-1990.

    Summary:

    • The study introduces the 'expolinomial' function, a mathematical tool designed to precisely model population changes over a defined period.
    • This function was applied to Mexican demographic data from 1940 to 1990, integrating census information with birth, death, and migration data.
    Keywords:
    AmericasBirth RateCensusData AnalysisData QualityDeath RateDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesFertilityFertility MeasurementsLatin AmericaMathematical ModelMexicoMigrationModels, TheoreticalMortalityNorth AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation StatisticsResearch Methodology

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  • The analysis successfully reconciled disparate data sources, providing a more coherent picture of population dynamics.

    • Impact:

    • Provides a robust mathematical framework for analyzing historical population data.
    • Improves the accuracy of demographic reconstructions, essential for historical and social science research.
    • Offers a method applicable to other regions or time periods facing similar data reconciliation challenges.