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[Population forecasts 1996: less population growth, increased aging].

J De Beer

    Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
    |January 1, 1997
    PubMed
    Summary
    This summary is machine-generated.

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    The Netherlands population will grow until 2050, reaching 17.2 million. Revised fertility and increased life expectancy forecasts contribute to a stronger rise in the elderly population.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Gerontology

    Context:

    • Presents new national population forecasts for the Netherlands covering the period 1996-2050.
    • Compares current forecasts with previous projections to highlight key demographic shifts.
    • Focuses on the implications of revised assumptions on population growth and age structure.

    Purpose:

    • To forecast the population size and structure of the Netherlands up to 2050.
    • To analyze the impact of updated fertility and life expectancy assumptions on demographic trends.
    • To project the future proportion of elderly individuals within the Dutch population.

    Summary:

    • Population size is projected to grow for three decades, peaking at 17.2 million, a downward revision from prior forecasts.
    Keywords:
    Age Distribution--changesAge FactorsDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeLength Of LifeLife ExpectancyMortalityNetherlandsPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation Growth EstimationPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologyWestern Europe

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  • Lower projected growth is attributed to revised, lower fertility rate assumptions.
  • Increased life expectancy is now projected to continue until 2050, unlike previous forecasts holding it constant after 2010.

    • Impact:

    • The revised assumptions lead to a more significant increase in the proportion of elderly people in the Netherlands.
    • Provides crucial data for long-term policy planning in areas such as healthcare, pensions, and social services.
    • Informs public discourse on the demographic future and its societal implications.