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Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration.

S Gorbey, D James, J Poot

International Regional Science Review

|September 26, 2002

Summary

Forecasting trans-Tasman migration using a vector autoregression (VAR) model offers valuable insights into New Zealand

Keywords:

Australia Demographic Factors Developed Countries Estimation Technics International Migration Migration Migration Policy New Zealand Oceania Policy Population Population Dynamics Population Forecast Population Policy Research Methodology Social Policy

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Area of Science:

Demography
Economics
Statistical Modeling

Background:

Trans-Tasman migration (Australia-New Zealand) is largely visa-free, mirroring internal migration patterns.
Net migration significantly influences New Zealand's population dynamics.

Purpose of the Study:

To forecast trans-Tasman migration flows.
To integrate migration forecasting into population growth predictions.
To assess the utility of vector autoregression (VAR) models for migration forecasting.

Main Methods:

Utilized a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model.
Incorporated foreign and domestic economic variables into the model.
Analyzed time series data of net migration.

Main Results:

The VAR model provides a useful input for short-run population growth forecasting.
The approach is effective when time series of net migration are available.
Model applicability extends to interregional and unrestricted international migration between integrated economies.

Conclusions:

Vector autoregression (VAR) models are effective for forecasting migration in economically integrated nations.
This method aids in predicting population changes driven by migration.
The findings are relevant for both internal and unrestricted international migration.