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The direction of migration: a dynamic general equilibrium model.

K S Lee

    Journal of Regional Science
    |November 1, 1984
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study models migration between rural and urban sectors, considering demographic, demand, and production factors. It reveals how returns to scale and population growth influence migration direction, alongside economic variables.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Demography
    • Economic Modeling

    Background:

    • Previous studies on migration primarily focused on price and income elasticities.
    • Limited consideration was given to demographic factors and production conditions in migration models.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To develop a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model.
    • To investigate migration direction influenced by demographic behavior, consumption demand, and production variations.

    Main Methods:

    • Developed a dynamic general equilibrium model with distinct rural and urban sectors.
    • Incorporated returns to scale and natural sectoral population growth rates.
    • Included price and income elasticities, and sectoral technical change rates.
    Keywords:
    ConsumptionDemographic FactorsEconomic DevelopmentEconomic ModelIncomeMathematical ModelMigrationModels, TheoreticalPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation GrowthPricingProductivityResearch MethodologyRural-urban MigrationTechnology

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    Main Results:

    • Returns to scale significantly impact migration direction.
    • Natural rates of sectoral population growth are key determinants of migration flows.
    • Economic variables like elasticities and technical change also play a role.

    Conclusions:

    • Migration patterns are complex, driven by a combination of economic and demographic factors.
    • The model provides a more comprehensive framework for understanding sectoral migration dynamics.