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[Turning points in demographic trends].

J A De Beer

    Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
    |February 1, 1986
    PubMed
    Summary
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    This study introduces a novel spline function method to pinpoint demographic turning points. The technique effectively identifies key shifts in live births, deaths, marriages, and migration trends in the Netherlands post-World War II.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Statistical Modeling
    • Population Studies

    Context:

    • Post-World War II demographic analysis
    • Netherlands population trends
    • Social and economic historical shifts

    Purpose:

    • To develop and apply a novel method for estimating demographic turning points
    • Utilizing nonlinear least squares and spline functions
    • Assessing shifts in vital statistics and migration patterns

    Summary:

    • A new method using spline functions and nonlinear least squares estimates demographic turning points.
    • Applied to Dutch data on live births, deaths, marriages, and migration post-1950.
    • Trends are generally well-described by three turning points after 1950.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeFertilityInternational MigrationMeasurementMethodological StudiesMigrationMigration, InternalMortalityNetherlandsNuptialityPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologyWestern Europe

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    Impact:

    • Provides a robust statistical tool for demographic analysis
    • Enhances understanding of historical population dynamics
    • Facilitates accurate modeling of long-term demographic changes