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Educational attainment and cohort size.

D C Stapleton, D J Young

    Journal of Labor Economics
    |July 1, 1988
    PubMed
    Summary
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    The US postwar baby boom significantly impacted education and earnings. Higher education returns decreased for the baby boom generation due to lower worker substitutability, affecting educational attainment incentives.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Sociology
    • Demographics

    Background:

    • The postwar baby boom in the United States created a large demographic cohort.
    • Understanding the long-term economic and educational impacts of demographic shifts is crucial.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the effect of the postwar baby boom on economic returns to education.
    • To investigate the influence of the baby boom on educational attainment rates over three decades.

    Main Methods:

    • Economic modeling to assess the present value of lifetime earnings.
    • Analysis of educational attainment and return on investment in education data.

    Main Results:

    • The baby boom cohort experienced depressed earnings for highly educated workers.
    Keywords:
    AmericasBaby BoomCohort AnalysisDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesDeveloping CountriesEconomic FactorsEducationEducational StatusFertilityHuman ResourcesLabor ForceMacroeconomic FactorsNorth AmericaNorthern AmericaPopulationPopulation DynamicsResearch MethodologySocioeconomic FactorsSocioeconomic StatusUnited States

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  • This cohort showed reduced incentives for higher educational attainment.
  • Pre- and post-boom cohorts experienced opposite effects.

    • Conclusions:

    • The diminishing substitutability between young and old workers, particularly with higher education, explains observed trends.
    • The hypothesis accounts for the decline in college returns and completion rates in the 1970s.
    • It predicts a future increase in educational attainment for subsequent generations.