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Mortality and population ageing.

G Caselli, J Vallin

    European Journal of Population = Revue Europeenne De Demographie
    |May 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Mortality trends significantly impact population aging, often as much as fertility declines. This is evident in France and Italy, where mortality changes drive aging more than fertility in projections.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Gerontology
    • Sociology

    Background:

    • Population aging is a significant global demographic trend.
    • Fertility decline is commonly cited as the primary driver of population aging.
    • The role of mortality trends in population aging requires further examination.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To analyze the impact of mortality trends on population age structure.
    • To compare the effects of fertility, mortality, and migration on demographic aging.
    • To project population aging in France and Italy until 2040.

    Main Methods:

    • Demographic projections using cohort-component methods.
    • Analysis of historical mortality and fertility data (last 30 years).
    • Modeling future population age structures based on specified fertility, mortality, and migration scenarios.
    Keywords:
    Age DistributionAge FactorsDemographic AgingDemographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeFertilityFertility DeclineFranceItalyMediterranean CountriesMigrationMortality--changesPopulationPopulation CharacteristicsPopulation DynamicsPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologySouthern EuropeWestern Europe

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    Main Results:

    • Mortality changes have an impact on population aging at least equal to fertility decline.
    • In Italy, mortality change accounts for over half the projected increase in the elderly population (60+).
    • Even with sustained low fertility, mortality trends are a major driver of future population aging.

    Conclusions:

    • Mortality trends are a critical, often underestimated, factor in population aging.
    • Policy and research on population aging should consider both fertility and mortality dynamics.
    • Future demographic aging in developed nations will be significantly shaped by evolving mortality patterns.