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[Predictability of international migration].

J De Beer

    Maandstatistiek Van De Bevolking (Hague, Netherlands : 1982)
    |May 1, 1990
    PubMed
    Summary
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    Dutch population forecasts have underestimated international migration uncertainty since 1975. Forecast intervals were too narrow, failing to capture actual migration trends. Models can better estimate forecast widths for average migration over time.

    Area of Science:

    • Demography
    • Population Studies
    • Migration Analysis

    Context:

    • Dutch national population forecasts from 1975 onwards.
    • Evaluation of international migration projection accuracy.
    • Analysis of forecast interval width compared to observed data.

    Purpose:

    • To assess the historical accuracy of international migration forecasts in the Netherlands.
    • To determine if forecast uncertainty has been adequately represented.
    • To evaluate the suitability of a specific model for forecast interval determination.

    Summary:

    • International migration projections in Dutch Population Forecasts since 1975 have consistently underestimated uncertainty.
    • Observed migration data frequently fell outside the projected low and high forecast variants, with intervals covering only 25% of outcomes.
    Keywords:
    Demographic FactorsDeveloped CountriesEstimation TechnicsEuropeInternational MigrationMigrationModels, TheoreticalNetherlandsPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ForecastResearch MethodologyTime FactorsWestern Europe

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  • A utilized model is deemed appropriate for calculating forecast interval width, particularly for average migration over multiple years.

    • Impact:

    • Highlights significant limitations in past Dutch population forecasting for international migration.
    • Suggests a need for revised methodologies to improve the reliability of migration projections.
    • Provides insights into more accurate forecasting of average migration trends over time.