[A demographic forecasting model with reference to population groups that intermarry, using the example of the...

"This research note develops a multi-state population projection model in which inter-marriage between the states and the following uncertainty about the state of the children plays a major role. Since only 5% of the Austrian population belong to the Evangelical Church, but more than 80% of their members marry partners not belonging to the church, the question of the percentage of children from mixed marriages that become church members turns out to be vital for the future size and age composition of the church." Five different scenarios to the year 2030 are examined. (SUMMARY IN ENG)