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Future trends in international migration.

H Korner

    Inter Economics
    |January 1, 1991
    PubMed
    Summary
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    International migration may not decline as projected by the World Bank. This study questions the assumption that migration elasticities remain constant despite changing economic conditions.

    Area of Science:

    • Economics
    • Sociology
    • Demography

    Background:

    • World Bank projections indicate a significant decline in international migration over the next decade.
    • These projections rely on assumptions about narrowing welfare gaps and constant migration elasticities.

    Purpose of the Study:

    • To evaluate the validity of World Bank projections on international migration decline.
    • To critically assess the assumption of constant migration elasticities in response to socio-economic changes.

    Main Methods:

    • Analysis of World Bank migration projection models.
    • Economic and sociological assessment of migration determinants.
    • Review of migration elasticity concepts and empirical evidence.

    Main Results:

    Keywords:
    CritiqueDemographic FactorsDeveloping CountriesEconomic DevelopmentEconomic FactorsEmploymentEstimation TechnicsInternational Migration--changesLow Income PopulationMacroeconomic FactorsMigrationPopulationPopulation DynamicsPopulation ProjectionResearch MethodologySocial ClassSocioeconomic FactorsSocioeconomic StatusWorld

    Related Experiment Videos

    • The assumption of constant negative migration elasticities is questioned.
    • Economic and social conditions may influence migration decisions differently than projected.
    • Potential for revised migration flow estimations.

    Conclusions:

    • World Bank migration projections may overestimate the decline in international migration.
    • Further research is needed to refine migration models considering dynamic elasticity.
    • Policy implications for understanding future global migration patterns.