Interregional gross migration and structural changes in local industries

Area of Science:

• Economics
• Sociology
• Demography

Background:

• Interregional migration is influenced by economic and demographic factors.
• Understanding the drivers of migration is crucial for regional development and policy.
• Previous research has focused on factors like earnings and employment, but the role of industrial structure needs further investigation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To empirically examine the impact of structural changes in local industries on interregional gross migration in Japan.
• To differentiate the effects of industrial structure on various migration flows (rural-urban, urban-rural, urban-urban, rural-rural).
• To compare the influence of industrial structure with other established migration determinants.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of pooled data for Japan covering the period 1974-1985.
• Development of an index for local employment growth dispersion across sectors to represent structural changes.
• Econometric estimation to assess the impact of structural changes and other variables on migration flows.

Main Results:

• Structural changes in local industries significantly induce both interregional and intraregional migration.
• The impact of industrial structural changes varies across different types of gross migration flows.
• Earnings differentials, aggregate employment growth, national unemployment, distance, and age structure also influence migration patterns.

Conclusions:

• Local industrial restructuring is a key driver of population redistribution in Japan.
• Policy interventions aimed at migration should consider the specific nature of industrial change and its differential impacts.
• A comprehensive understanding of migration requires integrating structural economic factors with traditional determinants.