A method for assessing the global spread of HIV-1 infection based on air travel

"The paper presents a methodology aimed at quantifying the impact of regular air traffic on the global spread of AIDS. A compartmental approach is used to represent the fluxes of infective passengers between 52 major cities. The impact of these fluxes on the pandemic is assessed by using a methodology which has been applied in the past for studying the dynamic of an influenza pandemic. In its present version, under simplified assumptions, the model reproduces qualitatively the three world patterns of HIV-1 infection in 1988. The methodology developed in this paper does not provide a detailed past history of the virus, and does not take into account the possibility of multifoci sporadic cases in the past. However it provides evidence that the significant start of the pandemic...was by the end of the 60's in Central Africa." (SUMMARY IN FRE)