Multiregional demographic projections in practice: a metropolitan example

"This paper examines options for local and regional projections which reflect both demographic interdependencies with jobs and housing at this area scale, and the inapplicability of traditional demographic projection methods to population or areal subdivisions. This context for local demographic projections requires constraints (for example, to job and housing forecasts or to higher area totals), the use of proxy or explanatory indicators to predict demographic rates or totals, and parameterization of demographic schedules, to facilitate comparison across numerous localities and to set future assumptions about demographic components. The traditional framework of self-contained projection by deterministic cohort survival is therefore widened to include regio-scientific and stochastic modelling concepts. The framework for empirical analysis is London [England] and its boroughs." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND GER)